技术采用生命周期（TechnologyAdoptionLifeCycle）
技术采用生命周期概述
技术采用生命周期（TechnologyAdoptionLifeCycle），如图一所示，为1957年IowaStateCollege为分析玉米种子采购行为所提出。起先，该概念的提出并未获得许多回响，一直要等到1962年EverettRogers出版《创新的扩散》（DiffusionofInnovations）一书后，才逐渐获得学研界的重视。
技术采用生命周期为一钟形曲线（BellCurve），该曲线将消费者采用新技术的过程分成五个阶段，分别包括创新者、早期采用者、早期大众、晚期大众与落后者。上述五个阶段的占整体使用人数比例分别为2.5%、13.5%、34%、34%与16%。根据Roger的研究，上述五个不同阶段的使用者具不同特色，包括：
创新者（innovators）2.5%-venturesome,educated,multipleinfosources,greaterpropensitytotakerisk（冒险家）
早期采用者（earlyadopters）13.5%-socialleaders,popular,educated（意见领袖）
早期大众（earlymajority）34%-deliberate,manyinformalsocialcontacts（深思熟虑者）
晚期大众（latemajority）34%-skeptical,traditional,lowersocio-economicstatus（传统百姓）
落后者（laggards）16%-neighboursandfriendsaremaininfosources,fearofdebt（落伍者）
Technologyadoptionlifecycle
ThetechnologyadoptionlifecycleisasociologicalmodeldevelopedbyJoeM.Bohlen,GeorgeM.BealandEverettM.RogersatIowaStateCollege,buildingonearlierresearchconductedtherebyNealC.GrossandBryceRyan.Theiroriginalpurposewastotrackthepurchasepatternsofhybridseedcornbyfarmers.
data/attachment/portal/201111/06/133928qfqintbqjjnmqc3m.pngTechnologyAdoptionLifeCycle
Beal,RogersandBohlentogetherdevelopedatechnologydiffusionmodelandlaterEverettRogersgeneralizedtheuseofitinhiswidelyacclaimedbook,DiffusionofInnovations(nowinitsfifthedition),describinghownewideasandtechnologiesspreadindifferentcultures.OthershavesinceusedthemodeltodescribehowinnovationsspreadbetweenstatesintheU.S.
AgraphofEverettRogersTechnologyAdoptionLifecyclemodel.DrawninOmniGraffleandthentrimmedinApplePreview.
Thetechnologyadoptionlifecyclemodeldescribestheadoptionoracceptanceofanewproductorinnovation,accordingtothedemographicandpsychologicalcharacteristicsofdefinedadoptergroups.Theprocessofadoptionovertimeistypicallyillustratedasaclassicalnormaldistributionor"bellcurve."Themodelindicatesthatthefirstgroupofpeopletouseanewproductiscalled"innovators,"followedby"earlyadopters."Nextcometheearlyandlatemajority,andthelastgrouptoeventuallyadoptaproductarecalled"laggards."
Thedemographicandpsychological(or"psychographic")profilesofeachadoptiongroupwereoriginallyspecifiedbytheNorthCentralRuralSociologyCommittee,SubcommitteefortheStudyoftheDiffusionofFarmPractices(ascitedbyBealandBohlenintheirstudyabove).
Thereportsummarisedthecategoriesas:
1.innovators-hadlargerfarms,weremoreeducated,moreprosperousandmorerisk-oriented.
2.earlyadopters-younger,moreeducated,tendedtobecommunityleadersearlymajority-moreconservativebutopentonewideas,activeincommunityandinfluencetoneighbours.
3.latemajority-older,lesseducated,fairlyconservativeandlesssociallyactive.
4.laggards-veryconservative,hadsmallfarmsandcapital,oldestandleasteducated.
Adaptationsofthemodel
Themodelhasspawnedarangeofadaptationsthatextendtheconceptorapplyittospecificdomainsofinterest.Inthisbook,CrossingtheChasm,GeoffreyMooreproposesavariationoftheoriginallifecycle.Hesuggeststhatfordiscontinuousordisruptiveinnovations,thereisagaporchasmbetweenthefirsttwoadoptergroups(innovators/earlyadopters),andtheearlymajority.InEducationaltechnology,LindyMcKeownhasprovidedasimilarmodel(apencilmetaphor)describingtheICTuptakeineducation.
Examples
Onewaytomodelproductadoptionistounderstandthatpeople'sbehaviorsareinfluencedbytheirpeersandhowwidespreadtheythinkaparticularactionis.Formanyformat-dependenttechnologies,peoplehaveanon-zeropayoffforadoptingthesametechnologyastheirclosestfriendsorcolleagues.IftwousersbothadoptproductA,theymightgetapayoffa>0;iftheyadoptproductB,theygetb>0.ButifoneadoptsAandtheotheradoptsB,theybothgetapayoffof0.
Wecansetathresholdforeachusertoadoptaproduct.Saythatanodevinagraphhasdneighbors:thenvwilladoptproductAifafractionpofitsneighborsisgreaterthanorequaltosomethreshold.Forexample,ifv'sthresholdis2/3,andonlyoneofitstwoneighborsadoptsproductA,thenvwillnotadoptA.Usingthismodel,wecandeterministicallymodelproductadoptiononsamplenetworks.
技术生命周期与产品生命周期之相异点
表一、技术生命周期与产品生命周期之相异点
相似点周期曲线均为钟形曲线
差异点1.产品生命周期包含4阶段，技术采用生命周期为5阶段曲线
2.技术采用生命周期将每一阶段均有量化指标，其中2.5%、13.5%与34%即为关键数字
3.技术采用生命周期除强调每一阶段发展策略外，亦强调横跨不同阶段（介面议题）所需考量之策略议题。
参考文献
1.01.1David.技术采用生命周期及死亡之井对新产品行销启示.科技产业资讯室
Diffusionofinnovations
Bohlen,JoeM.;Beal,GeorgeM.(May1957),"TheDiffusionProcess",SpecialReportNo.18(AgricultureExtensionService,IowaStateCollege)1:56–77.
Gross,NealC.(1942)ThediffusionofaculturetraitintwoIowatownships.M.S.Thesis,IowaStateCollege,Ames.
Ryan,Bryce,andNealC.Gross(1943)“ThediffusionofhybridseedcornintwoIowacommunities.”RuralSociology8:15-24.RS(E)
Ryan,Bryce,andNealC.Gross(1950)AcceptanceanddiffusionofhybridcornseedintwoIowacommunities.ResearchBulletin372,AgriculturalExperimentStation,Ames,Iowa.
Beal,GeorgeM.,EverettM.Rogers,andJoeM.Bohlen(1957)"Validityoftheconceptofstagesintheadoptionprocess."RuralSociology22(2):166-168.
Rogers,EverettM.(1962).DiffusionofInnovations,Glencoe:FreePress.
Savage,RobertL.(1985)."DiffusionResearchTraditionsandtheSpreadofPolicyInnovationsinaFederalSystem"Publius15(Fall):1-27.
Pencilmetaphor
VonAhn,Luis.(2008)ScienceoftheWeblecturesatCarnegieMellonUniversity.